Written by Professor-Rogue
As an academic ghostwriter for UnemployedProfessors, I write a lot in the areas of Political Science and International Relations because this is the field in which I obtained my doctoral degree. With this expertise in mind, and considering that I studied Russia extensively as a graduate student, I feel the need to discuss the importance of the likely invasion of Ukraine that Russia will undertake under the leadership of President Vladimir Putin. Such an invasion, which I believe to be inevitable, will represent the largest use of armed force in Europe since World War II. This should terrify all of us because President Putin of Russia has already demonstrated that he does not care about the international norms of territorial sovereignty and is aiming to reunite significant elements of the former Soviet Union.
Considering the degree to which Central and Western European states are dependent on Russian gas exports, the collateral damage produced by this upcoming war will not be solely restricted to the vulnerable population of Ukraine. Global economic externalities are likely to be generated by this disruption of the European gas supply and prices for heating will likely raise significantly throughout Europe. I do not believe that there is any realistic and short-term solution through which Europe can make use of other sources of gas so as to heat itself. In this context, and with the United States and other Western great powers likely to impose sanctions on Russia when it invades Ukraine, the economic consequences of this pending conflict are unknowable.
What is also unknowable is what Russia intends to do in Ukraine. Up until a few days ago, I believed that any Russian incursion into Ukraine would be nothing more than a show of power meant to destroy much of the Ukrainian military without necessarily occupying the whole country. This said, and now that Putin’s Russia is deploying troops in Belarus, which lies to the North of Ukraine, I am worried that Putin is aiming for a full invasion and annexation of Ukraine. With Russia having significant air and armor superiority over Ukraine, this will likely lead to a swift and decisive war in which Russia will triumph that could be followed by a bloody insurgency between Ukrainians and Russians.
Given the complexity of Ukraine’s make-up and the presence of many ethnically Russian people within the country, a Russian invasion and occupation has the potential for bringing about civil war within Ukraine and will likely disrupt life in nearby countries running the gamut from Poland to Slovakia. The endgame of any Russian invasion is unclear and, based on the unpredictability of Vladimir Putin, we cannot know what to expect from these developments.
While an old supposed Chinese proverb states that “may you live in interesting times,” this is not the type of interesting that I see as positive. While I anticipate writing many custom essays on what will inevitably happen in Ukraine, I am distressed by what is about to happen, and am even more worried about its long term implications for the stability of Europe and the world system more broadly.